{"id":103352,"date":"2025-03-27T07:46:50","date_gmt":"2025-03-27T03:16:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/"},"modified":"2025-03-27T07:46:50","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T03:16:50","slug":"%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0634\u0647\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u067e\u0634\u062a \u0645\u062f\u0644 Arima \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u0633\u062a \u0622\u0648\u0631\u062f\u0645"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-article-id=\"2359071\" id=\"article-body\">\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter-rtl ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">\u0641\u0647\u0631\u0633\u062a \u0645\u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"\u062a\u063a\u06cc\u06cc\u0631 \u0648\u0636\u0639\u06cc\u062a \u0641\u0647\u0631\u0633\u062a \u0645\u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%87\" >\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0647<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%DA%86%D8%B1%D8%A7_%D8%A2%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%9F\" >\u0686\u0631\u0627 \u0622\u0631\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u061f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D8%A7%D8%B2_%D8%A2%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7_%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87_%D9%85%DB%8C_%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%9F\" >\u0627\u0632 \u0622\u0631\u06cc\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f\u061f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D9%82%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AA_1_%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B9_%D8%AA%DA%A9%D9%86%DB%8C%DA%A9_%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C_%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4_%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C\" >\u0642\u0633\u0645\u062a 1: \u0627\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D9%82%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AA_2_%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B7_%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9_%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C_%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A2%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C\" >\u0642\u0633\u0645\u062a 2: \u0634\u0631\u0637 \u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u06a9 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u06cc\u0627\u062f\u0622\u0648\u0631\u06cc<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D9%82%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AA_3_%D8%AA%DA%A9%D9%86%DB%8C%DA%A9_%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C_%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4_%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C_%DA%A9%D9%85%DB%8C\" >\u0642\u0633\u0645\u062a 3: \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0645\u06cc<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D9%82%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AA_4_%D8%A2%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7\" >\u0642\u0633\u0645\u062a 4: \u0622\u0631\u06cc\u0645\u0627.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%87_1_%D8%AF%D8%B1%DA%A9_%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%84_AR_%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1_%D8%B1%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%86\" >\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0647 1: \u062f\u0631\u06a9 \u0645\u062f\u0644 AR (\u062e\u0648\u062f\u06a9\u0627\u0631 \u0631\u06af\u0631\u0633\u06cc\u0648\u0646)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%87_2_%D8%AF%D8%B1%DA%A9_%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%84_MA_%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%DA%AF%DB%8C%D9%86_%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B1%DA%A9\" >\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0647 2: \u062f\u0631\u06a9 \u0645\u062f\u0644 MA (\u0645\u06cc\u0627\u0646\u06af\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u06a9)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%87_3_%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%A8_%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%84_%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C_AR_%D9%88_MA_%E2%80%93_ARMA\" >\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0647 3: \u062a\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0628 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0647\u0627\u06cc AR \u0648 MA &#8211; ARMA<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%87_4_%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B1%D9%81%DB%8C_%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%AA_%E2%80%93_ARIMA\" >\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0647 4: \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u06cc \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a &#8211; ARIMA<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/%da%86%da%af%d9%88%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-arima-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%a2%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af\/#%DA%A9%D8%AF_%D9%85%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%84_%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7_chatgpt_%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C_%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AC%D8%B9\" >\u06a9\u062f \u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 chatgpt \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u0631\u062c\u0639<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%87\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0647<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u060c \u0645\u0627 \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u0631\u06a9\u0632 \u0628\u0631 Arima \u060c \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0633\u0631\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0642\u062f\u0631\u062a\u0645\u0646\u062f \u0628\u0631\u0631\u0633\u06cc \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645. \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0632 \u063a\u0648\u0627\u0635\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u0622\u0631\u06cc\u0645\u0627 \u060c \u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627 \u0628\u0627 \u067e\u0648\u0634\u0634 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0646 \u06cc\u06a9 \u067e\u0627\u06cc\u0647 \u0645\u062d\u06a9\u0645 \u0645\u06cc \u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc\u0645:  <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u0627\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc &#8211; \u06a9\u06cc\u0641\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u06a9\u0645\u06cc\n<\/li>\n<li>\u0634\u0631\u0637 \u06a9\u0644\u06cc\u062f\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc-\u0627\u0647\u0645\u06cc\u062a \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0628\u0648\u062f\u0646 \u0648 \u0646\u062d\u0648\u0647 \u0628\u0631\u0631\u0633\u06cc \u0622\u0646 \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0622\u0632\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0641\u0632\u0648\u062f\u0646\u06cc Dickey-Fuller (ADF)<\/li>\n<li>\u0631\u0648\u0634\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0645\u06cc &#8211; \u0633\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0644\u0648\u062d \u060c \u062d\u0631\u06a9\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0648 \u0635\u0627\u0641 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u06cc\u06cc\n<\/li>\n<li>\u062a\u062c\u0632\u06cc\u0647 Arima &#8211; \u062f\u0631\u06a9 \u0627\u062c\u0632\u0627\u06cc \u0622\u0646 \u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0628\u0647 \u0642\u062f\u0645:\n<ul>\n<li>\u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u062a\u0648\u0631\u06af\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u06cc (AR) &#8211; \u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0631 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u06cc\u0631 \u0645\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0627\u0631\u062f \u060c \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u06a9\u0631\u062f \u0647\u0645\u0628\u0633\u062a\u06af\u06cc \u062c\u0632\u0626\u06cc (PACF) \u0645\u0634\u062e\u0635 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f\n<\/li>\n<li>\u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b(MA) \u0645\u062f\u0644 &#8211; \u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u062e\u0637\u0627\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0631 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u06cc\u0631 \u0645\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0627\u0631\u062f \u060c \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u06a9\u0631\u062f \u0647\u0645\u0628\u0633\u062a\u06af\u06cc (ACF) \u0645\u0634\u062e\u0635 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f <\/li>\n<li>\u0645\u062f\u0644 ARMA &#8211; \u062a\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0628 AR \u0648 MA \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0628\u0647\u062a\u0631\n<\/li>\n<li>\u0645\u062f\u0644 ARIMA &#8211; \u0627\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0647 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0646 \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0631\u0633\u06cc\u062f\u06af\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u0631\u0648\u0646\u062f \u0648 \u062f\u0633\u062a\u06cc\u0627\u0628\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0628\u0648\u062f\u0646\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0647 \u06af\u0627\u0645-\u06cc\u06a9 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u06a9\u062f\u06af\u0630\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0639\u0645\u0644\u06cc \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u067e\u0627\u06cc\u062a\u0648\u0646\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u062f\u0631 \u067e\u0627\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u060c \u0634\u0645\u0627 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0631\u0648\u06cc\u06a9\u0631\u062f \u0633\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u062f\u0631\u06a9 \u0648 \u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u06cc ARIMA \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0633\u0631\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0647\u06cc\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a. \u0628\u06cc\u0627\u06cc\u06cc\u062f \u0634\u06cc\u0631\u062c\u0647 \u0628\u0632\u0646\u06cc\u0645!  <\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%DA%86%D8%B1%D8%A7_%D8%A2%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%9F\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0686\u0631\u0627 \u0622\u0631\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u061f<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u0645\u0646 \u0641\u06a9\u0631 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0648\u0632 \u0686\u0647 \u0645\u0641\u0627\u0647\u06cc\u0645\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0647\u0627 \u06a9\u0634\u0641 \u0646\u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u0645. \u0686\u06cc\u0632\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06cc \u0628\u0648\u062f!<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0628\u0633\u06cc\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u062a\u062c\u0632\u06cc\u0647 \u0648 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0647\u0627 \u0634\u062f\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0636\u0627\u06cc \u0634\u063a\u0644 \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0631\u062f \u0648 \u0641\u06a9\u0631 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0645 \u0686\u0631\u0627 \u0646\u0647. \u0645\u0646 \u0634\u0647\u0648\u062f \u067e\u0634\u062a \u0622\u0646 \u0631\u0627 \u0641\u0647\u0645\u06cc\u062f\u0645 \u0648 \u0622\u0631\u0632\u0648 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0645 \u0631\u0627\u0647\u06cc \u0633\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u062a\u0631 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0646 \u0647\u0645\u0647 \u0622\u0646 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f.<\/p>\n<p>\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0647 \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u060c \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0645\u06cc \u0631\u0633\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0628\u0631\u062f\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D8%A7%D8%B2_%D8%A2%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7_%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87_%D9%85%DB%8C_%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%9F\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0627\u0632 \u0622\u0631\u06cc\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f\u061f<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0628\u0627\u0632\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u0647\u0627\u0645: \u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u0633\u0647\u0627\u0645 \u0648 \u0631\u0648\u0646\u062f \u0628\u0627\u0632\u0627\u0631 \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0636\u0627: \u0628\u0647 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u063a\u0644 \u06a9\u0645\u06a9 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f \u062a\u0627 \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0636\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0622\u06cc\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062f\u06cc\u0631\u06cc\u062a \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0641\u0631\u0648\u0634: \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u062f\u0631\u0622\u0645\u062f \u0648 \u0631\u0648\u0646\u062f \u0641\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u06a9\u0645\u06a9 \u0628\u0647 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0631\u06cc\u0632\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u0698\u06cc\u06a9.<\/li>\n<li>\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f: \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0646\u0631\u062e \u062a\u0648\u0631\u0645 \u0648 \u0633\u0627\u06cc\u0631 \u0634\u0627\u062e\u0635 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0622\u0628 \u0648 \u0647\u0648\u0627: \u0628\u0647 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u062f\u0645\u0627 \u060c \u0628\u0627\u0631\u0646\u062f\u06af\u06cc \u0648 \u0633\u0627\u06cc\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u06af\u0648\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0622\u0628 \u0648 \u0647\u0648\u0627 \u06a9\u0645\u06a9 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u0628\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a \u0648 \u062f\u0631\u0645\u0627\u0646: \u0634\u06cc\u0648\u0639 \u0628\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0648 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u0628\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u0645\u0646 \u0628\u0647 \u0633\u0631\u0639\u062a \u0645\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u06a9\u0647 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0645 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0632 \u0634\u0631\u0648\u0639 ARIMA \u0644\u06cc\u0633\u062a \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u0645 \u062a\u0627 \u0627\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u0647 \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u062f\u0633\u062a \u0622\u0648\u0631\u06cc\u062f. <\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D9%82%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AA_1_%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B9_%D8%AA%DA%A9%D9%86%DB%8C%DA%A9_%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C_%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4_%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0642\u0633\u0645\u062a 1: \u0627\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u0645\u0627 \u0642\u0635\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u0645 \u062f\u0631 \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06a9\u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0645\u0631\u06a9\u0632 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645. <\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D9%82%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AA_2_%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B7_%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9_%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C_%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A2%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0642\u0633\u0645\u062a 2: \u0634\u0631\u0637 \u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u06a9 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u06cc\u0627\u062f\u0622\u0648\u0631\u06cc<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><em>\u0634\u0631\u0637: \u0628\u0633\u06cc\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0646\u06cc\u0627\u0632 \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0647\u0627 \u062f\u0627\u0631\u0646\u062f (\u062e\u0627\u0635\u06cc\u062a \u0622\u0645\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0645\u0627\u0646\u0646\u062f \u0645\u06cc\u0627\u0646\u06af\u06cc\u0646 \u060c \u0648\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0628\u0645\u0627\u0646\u062f). \u0627\u06af\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0645\u0627 \u0645\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a \u0627\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u06cc\u0645 (\u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0641\u0639\u0644\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0632 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u062a\u0641\u0631\u06cc\u0642 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645).<\/em> <\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u0628\u062f\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u06cc\u06a9 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06cc\u0627 \u062e\u06cc\u0631\u061f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0632 \u062a\u0633\u062a \u062f\u06cc\u06a9\u06cc \u0641\u0648\u0644\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D9%82%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AA_3_%D8%AA%DA%A9%D9%86%DB%8C%DA%A9_%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C_%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4_%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C_%DA%A9%D9%85%DB%8C\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0642\u0633\u0645\u062a 3: \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0645\u06cc<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0633\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0644\u0648\u062d (\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0634 \u0627\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0632 \u062f\u0642\u06cc\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u062f\u06cc\u0631\u0648\u0632 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0647\u062f \u0628\u0648\u062f)<\/li>\n<li>\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u062d\u0631\u06a9\u062a (\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0634 \u0627\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0632 \u0628\u0647 \u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0631\u0648\u0632\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0647\u062f \u0628\u0648\u062f)<\/li>\n<li>\u0647\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc \u0646\u0645\u0627\u06cc\u06cc (\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0634 \u0627\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0632 \u0628\u06cc\u0634\u062a\u0631 \u0627\u0632 \u0631\u0648\u0632\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u062a \u062a\u0623\u062b\u06cc\u0631 \u0631\u0648\u0632 \u0627\u062e\u06cc\u0631 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0647\u062f \u0628\u0648\u062f)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D9%82%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AA_4_%D8%A2%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0642\u0633\u0645\u062a 4: \u0622\u0631\u06cc\u0645\u0627.<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u0646\u0641\u0631\u06cc\u0646 \u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u062e\u0648\u062f\u062a\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0647\u06cc\u062f \u0641\u0647\u0645\u06cc\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u0642\u0628\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0622\u0646 \u0631\u0627 \u062a\u06a9\u0645\u06cc\u0644 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u062f. <\/p>\n<p>\u0628\u0647 \u0647\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u062a\u0631\u062a\u06cc\u0628 \u060c \u0647\u0646\u06af\u0627\u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0647 \u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0645\u062f\u0644 Arima \u067e\u0631\u06cc\u062f\u0645 \u060c \u0628\u0627 \u0645\u0641\u0627\u0647\u06cc\u0645\u06cc \u0645\u0627\u0646\u0646\u062f \u062a\u0631\u062a\u06cc\u0628 P \u060c D \u060c Q \u060c Lags \u060c Arima (P \u060c D \u060c Q) \u0648 \u063a\u06cc\u0631\u0647 \u0628\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0634\u062f\u0645 \u060c \u0648 \u0647\u0645\u0647 \u0622\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0647\u06cc\u0686 \u0633\u0631\u0646\u062e\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0622\u0646 \u0646\u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0645.<\/p>\n<p>\u0648\u0642\u062a\u06cc \u0641\u0647\u0645\u06cc\u062f\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645 \u0631\u0627 \u0622\u0645\u0648\u062e\u062a\u0645 \u060c \u0641\u06a9\u0631 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0645 \u0686\u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u06cc\u06af\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u062c\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u0646\u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u0686\u0647 \u0686\u06cc\u0632\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u0646 \u06a9\u0627\u0631 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u0632\u06cc\u0631\u0627 \u0645\u0645\u06a9\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u062f\u06cc\u06af\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0646\u06cc\u0632 \u06a9\u0627\u0631 \u06a9\u0646\u062f. \u0645\u0646 \u0641\u0647\u0645\u06cc\u062f\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u0624\u0644\u0641\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc ARIMA \u0645\u062f\u0644\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0631\u06cc\u0627\u0636\u06cc \u0641\u0631\u062f\u06cc \u0647\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u0628\u0647 \u0637\u0648\u0631 \u062c\u062f\u0627\u06af\u0627\u0646\u0647 \u062f\u0631\u06a9 \u0634\u0648\u0646\u062f.<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u06cc\u0646\u062c\u0627 \u0645\u06cc \u0631\u0648\u062f &#8230;<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%87_1_%D8%AF%D8%B1%DA%A9_%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%84_AR_%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1_%D8%B1%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%86\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0647 1: \u062f\u0631\u06a9 \u0645\u062f\u0644 AR (\u062e\u0648\u062f\u06a9\u0627\u0631 \u0631\u06af\u0631\u0633\u06cc\u0648\u0646)<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u0645\u062f\u0644 AR \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u061f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u0645\u062f\u0644 Autoregressive (AR) \u06cc\u06a9 \u0633\u0631\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u06cc\u06a9 \u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u062e\u0637\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u062e\u0648\u062f \u0628\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f. \u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 P (\u062f\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0631 \u062e\u0648\u062f\u06a9\u0627\u0631) \u0645\u0634\u062e\u0635 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 AR:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media2.dev.to\/dynamic\/image\/width=800%2Cheight=%2Cfit=scale-down%2Cgravity=auto%2Cformat=auto\/https%3A%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2Fvilbtnssm1rzj3wkz8p4.png\" alt=\"\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 AR\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"351\" height=\"124\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>\u06a9\u062c\u0627<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media2.dev.to\/dynamic\/image\/width=800%2Cheight=%2Cfit=scale-down%2Cgravity=auto%2Cformat=auto\/https%3A%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2F58cr4u49y5eipkj85l4l.png\" alt=\"\u067e\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0631\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062f\u0644 AR\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"439\" height=\"208\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0627 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u062f\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u0645 \u060c \u0627\u0645\u0627 P \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u061f <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u0628\u0644\u0647 \u060c \u0645\u0627 \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0631\u0632\u0634 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0628\u0647\u06cc\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u062f\u0627 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u062f\u0631 \u0641\u0631\u0645\u0648\u0644 \u06af\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0634\u0648\u062f\u061f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0647\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0627 \u060c \u0686\u06cc\u0632\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u0646\u0627\u0645 PACF (\u0639\u0645\u0644\u06a9\u0631\u062f \u0647\u0645\u0628\u0633\u062a\u06af\u06cc \u062c\u0632\u0626\u06cc) \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0645\u0627 \u06a9\u0645\u06a9 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f \u062a\u0627 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0631\u0627 \u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u062f\u0644 AR \u06af\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u060c \u062a\u0639\u06cc\u06cc\u0646 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645. <code>Note: Only Basic intuition behind PACF and ACF is explained in this article<\/code><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>PACF \u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 P \u0631\u0627 \u0646\u0634\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u062f\u061f <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>PACF \u062c\u0644\u0648\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u063a\u06cc\u0631\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645 \u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0632 \u0628\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u062f \u0648 \u062a\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0647\u0645\u0628\u0633\u062a\u06af\u06cc \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645 \u0628\u06cc\u0646 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0633\u0631\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0648 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0622\u0646 \u0631\u0627 \u0646\u0634\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u062f.<\/p>\n<p>\u0628\u0647 \u0632\u0628\u0627\u0646 \u0633\u0627\u062f\u0647<br \/>\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0631\u0648\u0632 5 \u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u064b \u062a\u062d\u062a \u062a\u0623\u062b\u06cc\u0631 \u0631\u0648\u0632 4 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a<br \/>\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0631\u0648\u0632 5 \u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u062f \u062a\u062d\u062a \u062a\u0623\u062b\u06cc\u0631 \u0631\u0648\u0632 4 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u062e\u0648\u062f \u062a\u062d\u062a \u062a\u0623\u062b\u06cc\u0631 \u0631\u0648\u0632 3 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u063a\u06cc\u0631\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a. <br \/>\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u060c \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 PACF \u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645 \u0631\u0648\u0632 1 \u060c \u0631\u0648\u0632 2 \u060c \u0631\u0648\u0632 3 \u0648 \u0631\u0648\u0632 4 \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0631\u0648\u0632 5 \u0627\u0631\u0632\u0634 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u0628\u0627 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u062d\u0627\u0644 \u060c \u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u0645 P \u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0632 PACF \u0628\u0641\u0647\u0645\u06cc\u0645\u061f <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 P \u0627\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u0646 \u062a\u0627\u062e\u06cc\u0631 \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0622\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u062d PACF \u0642\u0637\u0639 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media2.dev.to\/dynamic\/image\/width=800%2Cheight=%2Cfit=scale-down%2Cgravity=auto%2Cformat=auto\/https%3A%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2Fkt65e7u3yglrl6cyh1wk.png\" alt=\"PACF\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"429\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p><em>\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u0635\u0648\u06cc\u0631: geeksforgeeks<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646\u062c\u0627 P \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u0627\u062e\u06cc\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 PACF \u0645\u062b\u0628\u062a \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0648 \u062f\u0631\u0633\u062a \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0632 \u0622\u0646 \u0628\u0647 \u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0645\u06cc \u0631\u0633\u062f. \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u062a\u0627\u062e\u06cc\u0631 2 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0624\u0644\u0641\u0647 AR (2) \u0631\u0627\u0647 \u062d\u0644 \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0633\u062a. <\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%87_2_%D8%AF%D8%B1%DA%A9_%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%84_MA_%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%DA%AF%DB%8C%D9%86_%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B1%DA%A9\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0647 2: \u062f\u0631\u06a9 \u0645\u062f\u0644 MA (\u0645\u06cc\u0627\u0646\u06af\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u06a9)<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u062f\u0642\u06cc\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0627\u0646\u0646\u062f \u0645\u062f\u0644 AR \u0627\u0633\u062a \u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u062c\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u060c \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0632 \u062e\u0637\u0627\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f. <\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u0645\u062f\u0644 MA \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u061f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0645\u06cc\u0627\u0646\u06af\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u06a9 (MA) \u0633\u0631\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u06cc\u06a9 \u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u062e\u0637\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0635\u0637\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0637\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f. \u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u062e\u0637\u0627\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 Q (\u0633\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0634 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u062f\u0631 \u062d\u0627\u0644 \u062d\u0631\u06a9\u062a) \u0645\u0634\u062e\u0635 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a.<\/p>\n<p>\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 MA:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media2.dev.to\/dynamic\/image\/width=800%2Cheight=%2Cfit=scale-down%2Cgravity=auto%2Cformat=auto\/https%3A%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2Fy2s5z6fd2utw4djwk42d.png\" alt=\"\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 MA\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"325\" height=\"118\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>\u06a9\u062c\u0627:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media2.dev.to\/dynamic\/image\/width=800%2Cheight=%2Cfit=scale-down%2Cgravity=auto%2Cformat=auto\/https%3A%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2Fefidhh47tuqafae994n2.png\" alt=\"\u067e\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0631\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062f\u0644 MA\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"450\" height=\"153\" title=\"\"> <\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0686\u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 Q \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u062f\u0627 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645\u061f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>\u062f\u0631\u0633\u062a \u0645\u0627\u0646\u0646\u062f \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u060c \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646\u062c\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0632 ACF (\u0639\u0645\u0644\u06a9\u0631\u062f \u0647\u0645\u0628\u0633\u062a\u06af\u06cc) \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u062a\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u0645\u0627 \u06a9\u0645\u06a9 \u06a9\u0646\u062f \u062a\u0627 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0635\u0637\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0637\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u062f\u0644 MA \u062f\u0631\u062c \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645.<\/li>\n<li>ACF \u0647\u0645\u0628\u0633\u062a\u06af\u06cc \u0647\u0627 \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u062a\u0627\u062e\u06cc\u0631 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u060c \u0627\u0632 \u062c\u0645\u0644\u0647 \u0627\u062b\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645 \u0648 \u063a\u06cc\u0631\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645 \u0627\u0646\u062f\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 Q \u0627\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u0646 \u062a\u0627\u062e\u06cc\u0631 \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0622\u0646 \u0642\u0637\u0639\u0647 ACF \u0642\u0637\u0639 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%87_3_%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%A8_%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%84_%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C_AR_%D9%88_MA_%E2%80%93_ARMA\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0647 3: \u062a\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0628 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0647\u0627\u06cc AR \u0648 MA &#8211; ARMA<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u0627\u06a9\u0646\u0648\u0646 \u0647\u0631 \u062f\u0648\u06cc \u0622\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0631\u0627 \u062a\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0628 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u062a\u0627 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u062f\u0644 ARMA \u0634\u06a9\u0644 \u0628\u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc\u0645. \u0645\u062f\u0644 ARMA (P \u060c Q) \u062a\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0628\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0647\u0627\u06cc AR \u0648 MA \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0648 \u0647\u0645 \u062e\u0637\u0627\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u062e\u0648\u062f \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0635 \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u062f.<\/p>\n<p>\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 ARMA:<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media2.dev.to\/dynamic\/image\/width=800%2Cheight=%2Cfit=scale-down%2Cgravity=auto%2Cformat=auto\/https%3A%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2Fdi26owmuigb7gu8yey3k.png\" alt=\"\u0645\u062f\u0644\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"501\" height=\"117\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u062f\u0644 ARMA:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u062a\u0639\u06cc\u06cc\u0646 (\u0633\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0634 AR) \u0627\u0632 PACF \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u062a\u0639\u06cc\u06cc\u0646 (\u0633\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0634 MA) \u0627\u0632 ACF \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u060c \u0645\u062f\u0644 ARMA \u0631\u0627 \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%87_4_%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B1%D9%81%DB%8C_%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%AA_%E2%80%93_ARIMA\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0647 4: \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u06cc \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a &#8211; ARIMA<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u0686\u0631\u0627 \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a \u0644\u0627\u0632\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u061f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u0634\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0637 \u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u06a9 \u0645\u0627 \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0628\u0633\u067e\u0627\u0631 \u060c \u0628\u0647 \u0647\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u062f\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u0627\u0633\u062a. \u0627\u06af\u0631 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0633\u0631\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u06cc\u06a9 \u0631\u0648\u0646\u062f (\u0631\u0641\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a) \u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f \u060c \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0647\u0627\u06cc AR \u0648 MA \u0628\u0647 \u062a\u0646\u0647\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u0631 \u0646\u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f. \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u06cc\u0646\u06a9\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0633\u0631\u06cc\u0627\u0644 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0634\u0648\u062f \u060c \u0645\u0627 \u0645\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a \u0627\u0633\u062a.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u060c \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u061f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u0645\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a \u0628\u0627 \u06a9\u0645 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0646 \u0647\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0632 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0642\u0628\u0644\u06cc \u060c \u0631\u0648\u0646\u062f \u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0632 \u0628\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u062f<\/p>\n<p>\u0633\u0631\u0627\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0645 \u060c \u0642\u0647\u0631\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0646 <\/p>\n<p>\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 ARIMA:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media2.dev.to\/dynamic\/image\/width=800%2Cheight=%2Cfit=scale-down%2Cgravity=auto%2Cformat=auto\/https%3A%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2F8nffe4k7q4tc1u0kfbiz.png\" alt=\"\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0622\u0631\u06cc\u0645\u0627\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"514\" height=\"87\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0634\u0628\u06cc\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u0642\u0628\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a \u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u0642\u0637 Delta D \u06af\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a.<br \/>\u06a9\u062c\u0627 <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media2.dev.to\/dynamic\/image\/width=800%2Cheight=%2Cfit=scale-down%2Cgravity=auto%2Cformat=auto\/https%3A%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2Fsaxpzff6lbxff91t8322.png\" alt=\"\u067e\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0631\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062f\u0644 ARIMA\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"595\" height=\"154\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u062f\u0644 ARIMA:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0622\u0632\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0641\u0632\u0648\u062f\u0646\u06cc Dickey-Fuller (ADF) \u060c \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0628\u0648\u062f\u0646 \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0631\u0631\u0633\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u0627\u06af\u0631 \u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0627\u0633\u062a \u060c \u062a\u0627 \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0633\u0631\u06cc \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f \u060c \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a \u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f (D \u067e\u06cc\u062f\u0627 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f).<\/li>\n<li>\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u062a\u0639\u06cc\u06cc\u0646 P (AR) \u0627\u0632 PACF \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u062a\u0639\u06cc\u06cc\u0646 Q (\u0633\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0634 MA) \u0627\u0632 ACF \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n<li>\u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0631 \u0645\u0634\u062e\u0635 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u060c \u0645\u062f\u0644 ARIMA \u0631\u0627 \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%DA%A9%D8%AF_%D9%85%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%84_%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7_chatgpt_%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C_%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AC%D8%B9\"><\/span>\n<p>  \u06a9\u062f \u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 chatgpt \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u0631\u062c\u0639<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<div class=\"highlight js-code-highlight\">\n<pre class=\"highlight plaintext\"><code>Step 1: Import Libraries\n\nimport numpy as np\nimport pandas as pd\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nimport statsmodels.api as sm\nfrom statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller\nfrom statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf, plot_pacf\nStep 2: Load and Visualize Data\n\n# Sample monthly sales data (dummy example)\ndata = {\n    \"Month\": pd.date_range(start=\"2018-01-01\", periods=60, freq=\"M\"),\n    \"Sales\": [150, 160, 165, 170, 180, 190, 200, 210, 215, 220, 230, 240,\n              250, 260, 270, 280, 290, 300, 310, 320, 325, 330, 340, 350,\n              360, 370, 380, 390, 400, 410, 420, 430, 440, 450, 460, 470,\n              480, 490, 500, 510, 520, 530, 540, 550, 560, 570, 580, 590,\n              600, 610, 620, 630, 640, 650, 660, 670, 680, 690, 700, 710]\n}\n\ndf = pd.DataFrame(data)\ndf.set_index(\"Month\", inplace=True)\n\n# Plot the time series\nplt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))\nplt.plot(df, marker=\"o\", linestyle=\"-\", label=\"Sales Data\")\nplt.xlabel(\"Year\")\nplt.ylabel(\"Sales\")\nplt.title(\"Monthly Sales Data\")\nplt.legend()\nplt.show()\nObservation: The data shows an increasing trend, so we may need differencing.\n\nStep 3: Check for Stationarity\nBefore applying ARIMA, we check if the time series is stationary \nusing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test.\n\n# ADF Test\nresult = adfuller(df[\"Sales\"])\nprint(f'ADF Statistic: {result[0]}')\nprint(f'p-value: {result[1]}')\n\n# If p-value &gt; 0.05, the data is non-stationary\nIf the p-value &gt; 0.05, the series is not stationary, \nmeaning we need to apply differencing.\n\nStep 4: Apply Differencing (If Needed)\n\ndf_diff = df.diff().dropna()\n\n# Plot differenced data\nplt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))\nplt.plot(df_diff, marker=\"o\", linestyle=\"-\", label=\"Differenced Sales Data\")\nplt.xlabel(\"Year\")\nplt.ylabel(\"Sales Difference\")\nplt.title(\"Differenced Monthly Sales Data\")\nplt.legend()\nplt.show()\n\n# ADF test on differenced data\nresult = adfuller(df_diff[\"Sales\"])\nprint(f'ADF Statistic after Differencing: {result[0]}')\nprint(f'p-value: {result[1]}')\nIf the p-value &lt; 0.05, the series is now stationary, \nand we can proceed with ARIMA.\n\nStep 5: Identify ARIMA Parameters (p, d, q)\nWe use Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial \nAutocorrelation Function (PACF) plots to \ndetermine the values of \ud835\udc5d (AR term) and \ud835\udc5e (MA term).\n\n# ACF and PACF plots\nfig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(12, 5))\nplot_acf(df_diff, ax=ax[0])\nplot_pacf(df_diff, ax=ax[1])\nplt.show()\nFrom ACF: The point where it sharply cuts off suggests \n\ud835\udc5e\nq (MA order).\n\nFrom PACF: The point where it sharply cuts off suggests \n\ud835\udc5d\np (AR order).\n\nBased on the plots, let's assume ARIMA(1,1,1).\n\nStep 6: Fit ARIMA Model\n\n# Fit ARIMA(1,1,1)\nmodel = sm.tsa.ARIMA(df[\"Sales\"], order=(1,1,1))\nmodel_fit = model.fit()\n\n# Print model summary\nprint(model_fit.summary())\nStep 7: Forecast Future Values\nWe forecast the next 12 months.\n\n\n# Forecast next 12 months\nforecast = model_fit.forecast(steps=12)\n\n# Create forecast dates\nfuture_dates = pd.date_range(start=df.index[-1], periods=13, freq=\"M\")[1:]\nforecast_df = pd.DataFrame({\"Month\": future_dates, \"Forecast\": forecast})\nforecast_df.set_index(\"Month\", inplace=True)\n\n# Plot actual data vs forecast\nplt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))\nplt.plot(df, marker=\"o\", label=\"Actual Sales\")\nplt.plot(forecast_df, marker=\"o\", linestyle=\"dashed\", label=\"Forecast\")\nplt.xlabel(\"Year\")\nplt.ylabel(\"Sales\")\nplt.title(\"Sales Forecast using ARIMA(1,1,1)\")\nplt.legend()\nplt.show()\n\n<\/code><\/pre>\n<div class=\"highlight__panel js-actions-panel\">\n<div class=\"highlight__panel-action js-fullscreen-code-action\">\n    <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" class=\"highlight-action crayons-icon highlight-action--fullscreen-on\"><title>\u062d\u0627\u0644\u062a \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645 \u0635\u0641\u062d\u0647 \u0631\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u0631\u062f \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f<\/title>\n    <path d=\"M16 3h6v6h-2V5h-4V3zM2 3h6v2H4v4H2V3zm18 16v-4h2v6h-6v-2h4zM4 19h4v2H2v-6h2v4z\"\/>\n<\/svg><\/p>\n<p>    <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" class=\"highlight-action crayons-icon highlight-action--fullscreen-off\"><title>\u0627\u0632 \u062d\u0627\u0644\u062a \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645 \u0635\u0641\u062d\u0647 \u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c \u0634\u0648\u06cc\u062f<\/title>\n    <path d=\"M18 7h4v2h-6V3h2v4zM8 9H2V7h4V3h2v6zm10 8v4h-2v-6h6v2h-4zM8 15v6H6v-4H2v-2h6z\"\/>\n<\/svg><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u060c \u0645\u0627 \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u0631\u06a9\u0632 \u0628\u0631 Arima \u060c \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0633\u0631\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0642\u062f\u0631\u062a\u0645\u0646\u062f \u0628\u0631\u0631\u0633\u06cc \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645. \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0632 \u063a\u0648\u0627\u0635\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u0622\u0631\u06cc\u0645\u0627 \u060c \u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627 \u0628\u0627 \u067e\u0648\u0634\u0634 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0646 \u06cc\u06a9 \u067e\u0627\u06cc\u0647 \u0645\u062d\u06a9\u0645 \u0645\u06cc \u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc\u0645: \u0627\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc &#8211; \u06a9\u06cc\u0641\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u06a9\u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0631\u0637 \u06a9\u0644\u06cc\u062f\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc-\u0627\u0647\u0645\u06cc\u062a \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103353,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/media2.dev.to\/dynamic\/image\/width=1000,height=500,fit=cover,gravity=auto,format=auto\/https%3A%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2Ft5b5yw8ma6yp6yk4kgic.png","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-103352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dev"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103352\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nabfollower.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}